Review of agricultural production systems in eastern Africa in relation to food and nutrition security and climate change

The goal of this paper is to provide a unified resource for Eritrea, Djibouti, Somaliland, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania. For each country the review covers the topics of livestock production systems and agroecological zones, food and nutrition security, climate change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-smart agriculture (CSA) with a focus on the role of, or impact on, livestock systems. Each of these topics is broad and many excellent studies and reviews have been produced covering these topics either at the country level or for the entire East Africa region. It is the goal of this paper to provide an accessible introduction to these topics and to direct readers to the resources that exist for gathering detailed information on livestock production, food nutrition and security, climate change, GHG emissions and climate-smart livestock production in each country

Determinants of Household Energy Demand in Ethiopia: The Case Study of Addis Ababa City

This paper analyzes the household energy demand in Ethiopia: the case study of Addis Ababa City. The weighted average income of energy is used to estimate the energy demand in the city, using cross sectional data from 466 households in 2012/13. The result indicates that each household spends on average 14.7% or 376.98 birr per month of its expenditure for energy purchase from their total expenditure is 2760.84 birr. Household energy demand is estimated by the share of energy expenditure from total household expenditure. Energy is a necessity good for city households and has positive income elasticity (+0.61). And, household size, the proportion of women in households, household head level of education, owning of dwelling and electric appliance (electric meter and refrigerator) are important underpinning factors that affect the decision to use a particular energy type. Thus, improving access to different energy sources especially the modern ones are essential to increase household modern energy demand and reduce energy poverty in city

Minimum acceptable diet and its associated factors among children aged 6–23 months in Lalibela, northeast Ethiopia: a community-based cross-sectional study

The first 2 years of life are a critical window of opportunity for ensuring optimal child growth and development. In Ethiopia, the magnitude of the minimum acceptable diet ranges from 7 to 74⋅6 %. The evidence revealed the variation and unrelated data on the prevalence of minimum acceptable diet. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the minimum acceptable diet and its associated factors among children aged 6–23 months in Lalibela town administration, northeast Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Lalibela town administration, northeast Ethiopia among 387 mothers/caregivers with children aged 6–23 months from May 1 to 30, 2022. The data were entered by Epidata version 3.1 and analysed by SPSS version 25.0. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with minimum acceptable diet. The degrees of association were assessed using an adjusted odds ratio with a 95 % confidence interval and P-value of 0⋅05. The magnitude of minimum acceptable diet in the study area was 16⋅7 % (95 % confidence interval: 12⋅8–20⋅6 %). Sex of child, getting infant and young child feeding counselling at antenatal care, infant feeding practice-related knowledge and childhood illness are the variables that were found to be an independent predictor of minimum acceptable diet. Health facilities should strengthen infant feeding counselling starting from antenatal care visits during pregnancy for the recommended minimum acceptable diet is crucial

Ethiopia climate-smart agriculture roadmap

This roadmap is developed based on a context analysis of Ethiopian agriculture. The roadmap aims to strengthen the role of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) in addressing vulnerabilities facing the agriculture sector under changing climatic conditions by institutionalizing climate-smart agriculture. The roadmap is largely informed by the overarching country Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy; review of scientific literature; sectoral documents on Ethiopian agriculture and climate-smart agriculture; and related reports from government, development partners, scientific publications, expert comments on the draft and inputs obtained from several senior experts on two presentations made during climate-smart agriculture platform meetings conducted in May and November 2019

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Biodiversity And Livelihoods In Southwestern Ethiopia: Forest Loss And Prospects For Conservation In Shade Coffee Agroecosystems

The Ethiopian southwest is a global origin for Arabica coffee which is the second most traded global commodity after petroleum; and the most important agricultural commodity for Ethiopia. The region is also a global center of crop domestication and diversification with ancient and diverse social and agricultural systems, languages, and cultural groups. People have been here possibly longer than anywhere on Earth and have longer history of interactions with their natural environment, so they rely principally on these agro-ecosystems for a range of goods and services. The forest remnants represent some of the last remnants for the nation and the world's only habitat that retain diverse wild Arabica coffee populations. However, deforestation and land-use changes have been key drivers of degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the region as in many tropical regions. But, the extent, patterns and drivers of deforestation at local scales in the context of broader socio-ecological dynamics remain poorly understood, although such studies are important for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of forest resources. I explored land-use changes and forest loss in southwest Ethiopia over the last 40 years (Chapter 1), and the prospects for conserving biological diversity (Chapter 2) and ecosystem services (Chapter 3) in coffee landscapes. Over 40 years, more than 50% of the forest cover has been lost or converted to small-scale and large-scale coffee, Eucalyptus and tea plantations as well as other annual croplands. Deforestation rates varied in space and time as a function of the complex and interacting effects of local socio-cultural processes, and external policy and demographic pressures that influenced socio-ecological feedbacks locally. To understand the effects of deforestation and fragmentation on biodiversity, I examined patterns of woody plant diversity in the remaining forests, and studied the potential and limitations of conserving native biodiversity in coffee agroforests. There are four types of shade coffee production systems (wild, semi-wild, small-scale garden and plantation coffee) in the region. The wild and semi-wild (small-scale) shade coffee systems retain more native woody biodiversity than large-scale coffee plantations. Although over 60% of woody species and associated biodiversity can be conserved in these shade coffee systems depending on management and the species, some species such as understory shrubs and herbs, slow-growing large trees and lianas cannot persist. While traditionally diverse coffee agroforests can retain some components of native biodiversity, these agroforests are also facing intensification and conversion to working landscapes that support less biodiversity. In order to reduce deforestation and intensification and conserve biodiversity in these forests and coffee agroforests, it is essential to promote local ecosystem benefits to millions of people living in these ecosystems. I used socio-ecological and market surveys to assess the local benefits of forest-based ecosystem services in both forests and coffee farms, and the prospects for coffee agroforestry systems to provide complementary ecosystem services under current land-use trajectories in the region. My findings show that over 60% of provisioning services can be maintained in coffee landscapes while most of the cultural, regulating and supporting services will have to be provided by the forest remnants. Therefore, both forest remnants and low-intensity coffee landscapes are critical for the persistence of both biodiversity and ecosystem services in the region. This implies that losing these forests to coffee means losing important components of biodiversity and ecosystem services as well as sources for coffee shade tree diversity and for the coffee crop itself. Alternatively, we also cannot lose low-intensity and semi-wild coffee from these landscapes without losing considerable biodiversity and ecosystem services, since coffee is now a large part of these landscapes and forests are becoming scarce

The role of nutrition‐sensitive agriculture combined with behavioral interventions in childhood growth in Ethiopia: An adequacy evaluation study

Abstract Objective The study aimed to investigate the role of nutrition‐sensitive and specific interventions along with nutrition education on child stunting during the first 1000 days in Ethiopia. Methods An adequacy evaluation study was used to see changes between the baseline and end‐line data after following for 1 year. A sample of 170 mother‐child pairs who had a 1‐year followed up was used to detect differences. We performed structural equation modeling to elucidate changes in feeding behaviors, socioeconomic status, water, sanitation and hygiene on child linear growth. Furthermore, the independent effect of covariates on child linear growth was handled using a general linear model. Results A total of 170 and 270 mother‐child dyads were interviewed at baseline and end‐line surveys, respectively. After about 1 year of intervention, the annual rate of stunting prevalence declined from 29.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 18.6, 42.7) to 16.4% (95% CI = 10.7, 24.2). There was a significant change in the mean of length‐for‐age Z‐score which changed from −1.18 to −0.45 (P < .034). Adjusting for the different constructs of the health belief model, child sex, age, feeding behaviors, and dietary diversity, one egg consumption per day was responsible for the most significant variability explained (36%) for stunting reduction. Conclusions Sustainable access to egg consumption for children below 2 years experienced a substantial reduction in childhood stunting. A combination of nutrition‐sensitive agricultural and direct nutrition interventions along with behavioral‐based education is a sustainable strategy in reducing and preventing child growth from faltering in the early life stages